Signaling, Investment Opportunities, and Dividend Announcements

1. Pyung Sig Yoon and 
2. Laura T. Starks

Rev. Financ. Stud. (1995) 8 (4):995-1018.

发现股利增加（减少）和Capital Expenditure增加（减少）有关。

另外，股利变化和Analysts的预测变化有关。

比较了两种理论：

(1) cash flow signaling hypothesis是说，Dividend预测未来profitability方向
(2) free cash flow hypothesis正相反。Dividend升高，说明纠正了之间的Overinvestment，减少说明要有无用的investment增加。

文章支持第一种观点。（他们还比较了Tobin's q）

This article examines potential explanations for the wealth effects surrounding dividend change announcements. We find that new information concerning managers’ investment policies is not revealed at the time of the dividend announcement. We also find that dividend increases (decreases) are associated with subsequent significant increases (decreases) in capital expenditures over the three years following the dividend change, and that dividend change announcements are associated with revisions in analysts’ forecasts of current earnings. These results are consistent with the cash flow signaling hypothesis rather than the free cash flow hypothesis as an explanation for the observed stock price reactions to dividend change announcements.