Time Series Event Study of Management Forecasts (MF v1.0) - More Interesting

Analysis Variable : car
Range_desc	Guidance_code	MF_year	N Obs	N	Mean	t Value	Pr > |t|
between (&)	shortfall	2002	141	134	-0.0879203	-6.70	<.0001
		2003	3286	3143	-0.0531445	-27.62	<.0001
		2004	4414	4209	-0.0556624	-33.75	<.0001
		2005	4775	4518	-0.0508213	-37.66	<.0001
		2006	4976	4735	-0.0413169	-29.81	<.0001
		2007	5385	5152	-0.0409229	-29.77	<.0001
		2008	7518	7167	-0.0455477	-26.42	<.0001
		2009	5625	5414	-0.0290730	-17.93	<.0001
		2010	4902	4681	-0.0315479	-22.57	<.0001
		2011	5733	5527	-0.0336018	-23.01	<.0001
		2012	6828	6572	-0.0324841	-24.66	<.0001
		2013	6727	6469	-0.0256261	-22.02	<.0001
		2014	1934	1859	-0.0288105	-12.11	<.0001
	beat consensus	2001	2	1	-0.0017726	.	.
		2002	93	88	0.0399165	3.87	0.0002
		2003	2434	2324	0.0460118	21.16	<.0001
		2004	3638	3468	0.0341562	23.11	<.0001
		2005	3343	3173	0.0353568	23.86	<.0001
		2006	3633	3447	0.0366106	26.36	<.0001
		2007	3651	3476	0.0370392	24.00	<.0001
		2008	4514	4241	0.0386112	21.38	<.0001
		2009	4324	4124	0.0464362	24.49	<.0001
		2010	5837	5524	0.0307590	27.02	<.0001
		2011	4850	4602	0.0313495	21.25	<.0001
		2012	4485	4258	0.0348499	23.39	<.0001
		2013	4243	4066	0.0287937	19.78	<.0001
		2014	1072	1030	0.0289059	9.45	<.0001
	Match Consensus	2002	193	183	-0.0058938	-0.81	0.4199
		2003	5898	5611	0.0057823	5.17	<.0001
		2004	7638	7266	-0.000160427	-0.19	0.8510
		2005	7767	7356	0.0049093	6.24	<.0001
		2006	7780	7390	0.0043200	5.31	<.0001
		2007	8306	7860	0.0080441	9.42	<.0001
		2008	9538	9057	0.0095128	8.73	<.0001
		2009	7882	7491	0.0128382	11.27	<.0001
		2010	9534	9026	0.0027056	3.74	0.0002
		2011	9301	8892	0.0051716	6.08	<.0001
		2012	9707	9271	0.0086958	10.58	<.0001
		2013	9965	9561	0.0086726	12.17	<.0001
		2014	2343	2257	0.0092936	5.82	<.0001
	management guidance	2001	1	1	0.1264150	.	.
		2002	76	70	0.0122779	1.07	0.2886
		2003	1070	1018	-0.0026937	-0.64	0.5194
		2004	796	684	0.0017574	0.29	0.7738
		2005	639	482	-0.0031710	-0.49	0.6240
		2006	519	383	0.0037485	0.60	0.5473
		2007	503	381	-0.0179156	-2.88	0.0043
		2008	1067	919	0.0010758	0.21	0.8335
		2009	1205	1092	0.0199339	3.95	<.0001
		2010	1186	1046	0.0084357	2.23	0.0262
		2011	969	866	0.0117511	2.72	0.0066
		2012	1123	1015	0.0065651	1.82	0.0695
		2013	928	845	-0.0017280	-0.50	0.6201
		2014	193	184	0.0072252	0.62	0.5371
About	shortfall	2002	38	31	-0.0703282	-3.54	0.0013
		2003	466	435	-0.0606701	-11.78	<.0001
		2004	594	560	-0.0668099	-13.86	<.0001
		2005	511	488	-0.0690805	-13.11	<.0001
		2006	556	531	-0.0448856	-9.13	<.0001
		2007	779	718	-0.0307126	-8.92	<.0001
		2008	1559	1443	-0.0394905	-8.77	<.0001
		2009	1700	1592	-0.0168855	-4.85	<.0001
		2010	1082	1023	-0.0175754	-6.19	<.0001
		2011	1128	1055	-0.0319820	-8.85	<.0001
		2012	1334	1255	-0.0165181	-4.97	<.0001
		2013	1345	1280	-0.0180985	-7.39	<.0001
		2014	311	298	-0.0062353	-1.12	0.2631
	beat consensus	2002	14	13	0.0150043	0.81	0.4339
		2003	298	283	0.0408307	6.61	<.0001
		2004	539	504	0.0362392	8.22	<.0001
		2005	343	311	0.0544498	8.63	<.0001
		2006	325	306	0.0406301	7.50	<.0001
		2007	670	600	0.0194624	5.09	<.0001
		2008	1383	1272	0.0196394	5.66	<.0001
		2009	1174	1103	0.0299431	8.09	<.0001
		2010	1674	1568	0.0064988	3.25	0.0012
		2011	1554	1476	0.0107790	4.82	<.0001
		2012	1695	1595	0.0096230	4.59	<.0001
		2013	1738	1620	0.0069875	3.63	0.0003
		2014	468	444	0.0139052	4.09	<.0001
	Match Consensus	2002	65	65	-0.0101003	-1.27	0.2091
		2003	1674	1611	-0.0039667	-1.82	0.0689
		2004	2052	1934	0.000114271	0.06	0.9535
		2005	1851	1736	-0.0015865	-0.83	0.4081
		2006	1746	1636	0.0024591	1.18	0.2376
		2007	2444	2333	-0.0021895	-1.27	0.2046
		2008	3565	3413	0.0061189	3.08	0.0021
		2009	2828	2713	0.0132736	6.26	<.0001
		2010	3273	3129	0.0024471	1.87	0.0609
		2011	3312	3182	-0.000195038	-0.12	0.9031
		2012	3817	3639	0.0010401	0.72	0.4710
		2013	4459	4214	0.0020056	1.90	0.0569
		2014	1048	999	0.0085496	3.74	0.0002
	management guidance	2002	20	17	0.0290775	1.31	0.2091
		2003	271	249	0.0190555	1.82	0.0699
		2004	303	212	-0.0044855	-0.58	0.5595
		2005	216	126	-0.0011805	-0.10	0.9218
		2006	360	202	-0.0051174	-0.50	0.6169
		2007	358	211	-0.0022476	-0.28	0.7807
		2008	759	664	0.0222988	2.98	0.0030
		2009	931	831	0.0130307	2.16	0.0309
		2010	817	698	-0.0018499	-0.48	0.6299
		2011	623	548	0.0037315	0.65	0.5191
		2012	631	550	0.000209576	0.04	0.9645
		2013	512	476	-0.0033698	-0.81	0.4192
		2014	92	83	-0.0050524	-0.63	0.5275
more than	beat consensus	2002	4	4	0.0368926	1.09	0.3560
		2003	72	67	0.0538153	5.25	<.0001
		2004	159	142	0.0262697	3.87	0.0002
		2005	95	87	0.0416025	4.54	<.0001
		2006	133	119	0.0463969	5.68	<.0001
		2007	150	141	0.0437622	4.73	<.0001
		2008	229	220	0.0235027	3.17	0.0017
		2009	152	140	0.0253444	1.84	0.0674
		2010	231	209	0.0323540	5.29	<.0001
		2011	180	155	0.0283745	3.94	0.0001
		2012	143	130	0.0263124	3.33	0.0011
		2013	98	94	0.0161008	1.68	0.0959
		2014	24	24	0.0426152	2.43	0.0233
	management guidance	2002	4	4	-0.1266227	-3.42	0.0417
		2003	215	207	0.0189317	2.39	0.0177
		2004	397	346	-0.000699431	-0.10	0.9195
		2005	278	216	0.0122012	1.96	0.0510
		2006	390	311	-0.0034214	-0.65	0.5149
		2007	298	250	0.000548926	0.10	0.9206
		2008	409	393	-0.0012864	-0.22	0.8248
		2009	235	224	-0.0074171	-1.12	0.2619
		2010	314	291	-0.0016423	-0.34	0.7344
		2011	368	335	0.0070168	1.07	0.2875
		2012	276	238	-0.0021505	-0.41	0.6838
		2013	164	150	0.0015027	0.30	0.7684
		2014	38	35	0.0064594	0.52	0.6033
at least	beat consensus	2002	9	9	0.0358720	0.62	0.5517
		2003	142	138	0.0325256	4.00	0.0001
		2004	113	110	0.0168656	2.39	0.0186
		2005	89	86	0.0559389	3.96	0.0002
		2006	79	78	0.0515213	4.61	<.0001
		2007	41	41	0.0220988	2.30	0.0265
		2008	59	59	0.0499156	4.29	<.0001
		2009	55	55	0.0529231	3.54	0.0008
		2010	52	51	0.0412977	3.22	0.0022
		2011	78	74	0.0343938	2.63	0.0104
		2012	62	61	0.0198908	1.68	0.0988
		2013	51	51	0.0521835	2.78	0.0076
		2014	12	12	0.0561288	1.76	0.1064
	management guidance	2002	15	15	-0.0868953	-2.08	0.0565
		2003	199	181	-0.0085700	-1.03	0.3031
		2004	150	144	-0.0055840	-0.89	0.3739
		2005	145	129	-0.000081027	-0.01	0.9883
		2006	131	121	-0.0330993	-3.38	0.0010
		2007	132	115	-0.0068348	-0.88	0.3797
		2008	141	130	-0.0127228	-1.15	0.2503
		2009	73	73	-0.0144499	-1.14	0.2583
		2010	108	107	-0.0133360	-1.45	0.1503
		2011	114	110	-0.0076184	-1.08	0.2814
		2012	101	96	-0.0133860	-1.31	0.1919
		2013	111	108	-0.0021024	-0.38	0.7049
		2014	35	30	0.0513029	2.41	0.0225
high end of	shortfall	2003	13	12	0.0100412	0.84	0.4171
		2004	14	14	0.0081646	0.37	0.7178
		2005	20	20	0.0119601	1.19	0.2503
		2006	34	34	0.0106398	0.98	0.3354
		2007	22	20	0.0027239	0.18	0.8581
		2008	2	2	0.0587175	1.49	0.3767
		2009	9	9	-0.0046523	-0.19	0.8528
		2010	48	45	0.000150400	0.02	0.9825
		2011	32	32	0.0032157	0.32	0.7481
	beat consensus	2002	2	1	0.0068577	.	.
		2003	6	6	0.0291891	2.08	0.0924
		2004	8	8	-0.0148976	-0.47	0.6519
		2005	7	7	0.0271829	1.01	0.3500
		2006	6	6	0.0342082	2.12	0.0878
		2007	6	5	-0.0218258	-1.22	0.2907
		2009	3	2	0.0304697	0.71	0.6057
		2010	9	7	0.0241303	0.91	0.3996
		2011	6	6	-0.0049838	-0.30	0.7766
	Match Consensus	2002	3	3	0.1060975	2.89	0.1015
		2003	75	73	0.0248164	3.03	0.0034
		2004	106	103	0.0139907	1.79	0.0765
		2005	85	81	0.0303685	3.78	0.0003
		2006	111	104	0.0166235	2.19	0.0308
		2007	88	87	0.0301313	3.93	0.0002
		2008	9	9	0.0824971	2.37	0.0454
		2009	38	37	-0.0094550	-0.93	0.3586
		2010	124	117	-0.000578011	-0.10	0.9191
		2011	101	100	0.0143044	2.55	0.0122
	management guidance	2003	4	4	0.0521226	3.08	0.0540
		2004	3	3	0.1058329	3.25	0.0831
		2005	2	1	-0.0476492	.	.
		2006	4	3	0.0111695	0.24	0.8294
		2007	3	3	0.0873855	0.84	0.4902
		2009	1	1	0.0063479	.	.
		2010	1	1	0.0445301	.	.
		2011	3	2	0.0083777	0.30	0.8153
low end of	shortfall	2003	7	7	-0.0897668	-2.33	0.0583
		2004	6	6	-0.1109615	-2.56	0.0510
		2005	9	7	-0.0476084	-3.55	0.0121
		2006	7	7	-0.0314106	-1.21	0.2724
		2007	5	5	-0.0287181	-1.92	0.1266
		2010	9	8	-0.0162018	-1.28	0.2419
		2011	9	9	-0.0422691	-1.59	0.1497
	beat consensus	2003	19	17	-0.0080930	-0.76	0.4558
		2004	8	8	-0.0354652	-1.97	0.0891
		2005	14	13	-0.0625569	-1.81	0.0955
		2006	23	21	-0.0221593	-1.53	0.1423
		2007	16	14	-0.0108764	-0.47	0.6469
		2009	8	7	-0.0017317	-0.09	0.9276
		2010	14	13	-0.0257187	-0.85	0.4095
		2011	15	13	-0.0126097	-0.76	0.4623
		2012	1	1	0.0588459	.	.
	Match Consensus	2002	5	5	-0.1003224	-1.52	0.2024
		2003	90	89	-0.0164248	-2.62	0.0104
		2004	76	75	-0.0220669	-2.52	0.0138
		2005	86	83	-0.0384681	-6.32	<.0001
		2006	76	75	-0.0322083	-3.99	0.0002
		2007	78	73	-0.0268515	-4.29	<.0001
		2008	6	6	0.0364370	0.78	0.4725
		2009	22	20	0.000622043	0.05	0.9589
		2010	79	73	-0.0201271	-2.05	0.0441
		2011	67	64	-0.0250826	-2.28	0.0262
		2012	1	1	-0.0504291	.	.
	management guidance	2002	3	2	-0.0659798	-0.91	0.5314
		2003	1	1	-0.0210314	.	.
		2004	1	1	-0.0277601	.	.
		2005	1	1	-0.0476492	.	.
		2006	3	1	-0.0619647	.	.
		2009	7	7	0.0388989	1.79	0.1240
		2010	4	4	-0.0269680	-1.05	0.3727
		2011	5	5	0.0143403	1.41	0.2303
less than	shortfall	2002	2	2	-0.2492690	-2.04	0.2896
		2003	44	43	-0.0765933	-3.57	0.0009
		2004	53	50	-0.1125855	-5.76	<.0001
		2005	24	21	-0.0554584	-2.69	0.0140
		2006	51	51	-0.1068403	-6.15	<.0001
		2007	43	40	-0.0331670	-1.60	0.1182
		2008	63	62	-0.0171928	-0.83	0.4076
		2009	120	117	-0.0013854	-0.12	0.9022
		2010	42	42	0.0063224	0.45	0.6551
		2011	35	34	-0.0407430	-2.16	0.0379
		2012	46	44	0.0138384	0.52	0.6063
		2013	18	17	-0.0248218	-1.26	0.2251
		2014	3	3	0.0969718	1.16	0.3651
	management guidance	2002	3	3	-0.0765650	-1.09	0.3896
		2003	107	97	-0.0766446	-3.99	0.0001
		2004	131	108	-0.0425629	-3.38	0.0010
		2005	40	35	-0.0606610	-4.68	<.0001
		2006	65	57	0.0145231	0.56	0.5782
		2007	63	59	-0.0219022	-1.69	0.0970
		2008	109	102	-0.0145118	-1.02	0.3110
		2009	198	182	0.0124204	1.34	0.1805
		2010	91	87	-0.0026636	-0.28	0.7781
		2011	57	53	-0.0248631	-1.83	0.0724
		2012	44	41	-0.0102761	-0.60	0.5540
		2013	23	22	0.0094842	0.44	0.6610
		2014	10	9	-0.0163642	-0.81	0.4417
may exceed	management guidance	2003	15	14	0.0630778	1.86	0.0864
		2004	27	27	-0.000799239	-0.04	0.9681
		2005	20	19	0.0434456	1.60	0.1273
		2006	29	27	0.0357082	1.86	0.0739
		2007	19	17	-0.0280927	-1.04	0.3143
		2008	1	1	0.0649613	.	.
		2009	1	1	0.1396662	.	.
		2012	2	2	0.0937953	.	.
slightly more than	beat consensus	2003	6	6	0.0539462	1.63	0.1648
		2004	8	8	0.0275509	0.50	0.6315
		2005	6	6	0.0410034	1.09	0.3258
		2006	24	23	0.0079798	0.43	0.6738
		2007	22	21	0.0421457	1.94	0.0668
		2008	21	20	0.0238637	0.88	0.3917
		2009	28	28	-0.0135228	-0.48	0.6349
		2010	13	13	0.0149574	0.69	0.5051
		2011	17	17	0.0170830	0.90	0.3802
		2012	11	10	0.0415956	1.60	0.1445
		2013	16	15	-0.0312621	-1.51	0.1540
		2014	2	2	0.0078805	.	.
	management guidance	2002	1	1	-0.0192872	.	.
		2003	19	18	-0.0128414	-0.72	0.4801
		2004	35	34	-0.0176605	-1.41	0.1686
		2005	22	21	-0.0110827	-0.52	0.6061
		2006	48	45	-0.0037229	-0.25	0.8060
		2007	37	32	-0.0192581	-1.37	0.1801
		2008	31	29	-0.0295155	-1.05	0.3034
		2009	25	24	0.0352387	1.29	0.2110
		2010	19	18	-0.0060039	-0.28	0.7809
		2011	26	25	-0.0110868	-1.15	0.2622
		2012	30	30	-0.0024941	-0.21	0.8313
		2013	20	20	-0.000417743	-0.02	0.9820
		2014	8	8	0.0182488	1.00	0.3502
slightly less than	shortfall	2003	10	9	-0.0306437	-2.49	0.0374
		2004	11	9	-0.0760783	-2.76	0.0246
		2005	14	14	-0.0328376	-2.53	0.0254
		2006	16	16	-0.0536728	-2.59	0.0206
		2007	17	17	0.0068911	0.31	0.7598
		2008	15	14	-0.0451151	-1.61	0.1308
		2009	18	18	-0.0358690	-1.57	0.1356
		2010	11	9	-0.0033951	-0.18	0.8634
		2011	11	11	-0.0489571	-1.95	0.0794
		2012	7	7	-0.0046360	-0.30	0.7765
		2013	6	6	0.0089643	0.42	0.6949
		2014	3	3	0.0538494	1.53	0.2657
	management guidance	2003	8	8	0.0106428	0.42	0.6841
		2004	17	17	0.0062139	0.47	0.6426
		2005	8	8	0.0037419	0.14	0.8948
		2006	26	23	-0.0091800	-0.54	0.5973
		2007	15	15	0.0177895	0.90	0.3813
		2008	20	18	0.0754633	2.68	0.0160
		2009	15	15	-0.0081297	-0.79	0.4423
		2010	9	9	-0.0057008	-0.63	0.5487
		2011	10	10	0.0121850	0.41	0.6882
		2012	15	15	-0.0169043	-0.28	0.7871
		2013	9	8	0.0281801	1.13	0.2957
		2014	3	3	-0.0407768	-1.93	0.1929
comfortable with	shortfall	2003	1	1	0.2060227	.	.
		2004	2	2	-0.0688440	-0.89	0.5354
		2005	2	2	0.0950537	8.48	0.0747
		2006	5	5	0.0057759	0.67	0.5418
		2007	2	2	0.0347266	1.11	0.4663
		2008	3	3	0.0195916	0.52	0.6565
	beat consensus	2003	7	7	-0.0017051	-0.16	0.8806
		2004	1	1	-0.0425753	.	.
		2005	1	1	0.0180696	.	.
		2007	2	1	0.5329565	.	.
		2009	2	2	0.0163971	1.33	0.4112
		2010	1	1	-0.0342055	.	.
	Match Consensus	2002	15	15	0.0074009	0.70	0.4983
		2003	227	217	-0.0025939	-0.69	0.4940
		2004	105	104	0.0079784	1.49	0.1399
		2005	82	82	0.0021527	0.36	0.7166
		2006	46	46	0.0105507	1.14	0.2622
		2007	39	37	0.0096697	0.95	0.3461
		2008	26	26	0.0020553	0.13	0.9006
		2009	7	7	0.0503623	1.47	0.1922
		2010	4	4	-0.0205029	-2.33	0.1019
		2011	1	1	-0.0076378	.	.
		2013	3	3	-0.0295361	-0.98	0.4309
	management guidance	2002	1	1	-0.0498957	.	.
		2003	3	3	-0.0158470	-1.18	0.3597
		2005	1	0	.	.	.
		2006	6	0	.	.	.
		2007	14	8	-0.0700252	-1.64	0.1448
		2009	2	2	0.0608127	2.89	0.2122
significantly less than	shortfall	2003	1	1	-0.0768066	.	.
		2004	2	2	0.0055141	16.12	0.0394
		2005	15	9	-0.0601718	-3.51	0.0079
		2006	8	6	-0.0788691	-0.95	0.3846
		2007	3	2	-0.2449272	-1.35	0.4065
		2008	2	2	-0.1942644	.	.
		2011	1	1	-0.2840062	.	.
	management guidance	2002	1	1	-0.1032307	.	.
		2003	8	8	-0.0731269	-3.48	0.0103
		2004	5	5	-0.1651474	-3.49	0.0251
		2005	19	17	-0.0909307	-2.08	0.0535
		2006	7	7	-0.0200116	-0.43	0.6841
		2008	7	5	0.0080312	0.17	0.8698
		2009	1	1	-0.0670754	.	.
		2011	1	1	0.0755915	.	.
		2012	2	2	-0.0669766	-2.44	0.2480
significantly more than	beat consensus	2003	2	1	0.0609062	.	.
		2004	3	3	0.0810591	2.35	0.1437
		2005	1	1	0.0638046	.	.
		2006	3	3	0.0566360	1.92	0.1951
		2007	1	1	0.0670833	.	.
		2008	1	1	-0.0176611	.	.
	management guidance	2002	1	1	0.0202071	.	.
		2003	9	9	0.0468077	0.86	0.4129
		2004	9	9	-0.0225441	-0.83	0.4318
		2005	10	8	0.0105702	0.28	0.7906
		2006	17	12	0.0286718	1.38	0.1942
		2007	2	2	0.0503826	1.21	0.4397
		2008	1	1	-0.0317099	.	.
		2009	2	2	0.2869853	2.57	0.2365
		2011	1	1	-0.2840062	.	.
		2012	1	1	-0.0866493	.	.
not to exceed	shortfall	2008	9	9	0.0671104	1.18	0.2736
		2009	14	14	-0.0171058	-0.58	0.5736
		2010	3	3	-0.0103960	-0.42	0.7129
		2012	2	1	-0.0937879	.	.
	management guidance	2007	1	1	0.1570761	.	.
		2008	4	4	-0.0113196	-0.28	0.7983
		2009	40	38	0.0065399	0.23	0.8202
		2010	13	13	-0.0146883	-0.74	0.4754
		2011	9	9	-0.0396882	-0.96	0.3670
		2012	6	6	0.0269567	0.49	0.6436
		2013	6	6	0.0235950	0.82	0.4495
		2014	1	1	-0.0179100	.	.