Journal of Accounting and Economics
Volume 60, Issues 2–3, November–December 2015, Pages 141–160
What is the value of sell-side analysts? Evidence from coverage initiations and terminations
Kevin K. Lia, Haifeng Youb
Management Forecast对于股市的影响。
(1) Initiations和terminations有影响
(2) changes in information asymmetry 不一定
Abstract
We investigate three potential channels of analyst value creation: improving fundamental performance through monitoring, reducing information asymmetry, and increasing investor recognition. We show that changes in investor recognition have consistent explanatory power for the market reaction to coverage initiations and terminations but find mixed evidence for changes in information asymmetry and no evidence for changes in fundamental performance as determinants of the market reaction. These results suggest that analysts create value for firms under their coverage by improving their investor recognition and not by monitoring or reducing information asymmetry.
Showing posts with label Management Forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Management Forecast. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
On guidance and volatility
On guidance and volatility
Volume 60, Issues 2–3, November–December 2015, Pages 161–180
Mary Brooke Billingsa, Robert Jenningsb, Baruch Lev
讨论management guidance到底增加还是减少volatility。这文说是减少。
Abstract
In contrast to theoretical and empirical evidence linking disclosure to information environment benefits, recent research concludes that guidance increases volatility, but leaves open the question of whether volatility plays a role in prompting the issuance of guidance. Consistent with the notion that managers react to rising volatility by providing guidance, we document a link between abnormal run-ups in volatility and the decision to issue a forecast after controlling for the market’s ability to anticipate the guidance. Upon disentangling pre-guidance volatility changes from post-guidance volatility changes, we find no evidence that guidance increases volatility. Indeed, our evidence consistently supports the view that managers seek to and do mitigate share price volatility with guidance.
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
The informativeness of earnings and management’s issuance of earnings forecasts
The informativeness of earnings and management’s
issuance of earnings forecasts
Journal of Accounting and Economics 42 (2006) 439–458
Clive S. Lennox, Chul W. Park
ERC越显著的公司,公司越倾向发布Forecasts.
Theory suggests that managers issue earnings forecasts to reduce information asymmetry. An earnings forecast is more effective in reducing information asymmetry if it contains earnings news that is relatively more informative about the firm’s value. We hypothesize that a manager is more likely to issue an earnings forecast if investors perceive that earnings are more informative. We measure earnings informativeness by estimating the firm’s earnings response coefficient (ERC) in quarters prior to the forecast issuance decision. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that the firm’s historic ERC is positively associated with management’s issuance of earnings forecasts.
Journal of Accounting and Economics 42 (2006) 439–458
Clive S. Lennox, Chul W. Park
ERC越显著的公司,公司越倾向发布Forecasts.
Theory suggests that managers issue earnings forecasts to reduce information asymmetry. An earnings forecast is more effective in reducing information asymmetry if it contains earnings news that is relatively more informative about the firm’s value. We hypothesize that a manager is more likely to issue an earnings forecast if investors perceive that earnings are more informative. We measure earnings informativeness by estimating the firm’s earnings response coefficient (ERC) in quarters prior to the forecast issuance decision. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that the firm’s historic ERC is positively associated with management’s issuance of earnings forecasts.
Tuesday, December 1, 2015
Measure Freq. in IBES Management Forecast
| Measure | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measure | Frequency | Percent | Cumulative Frequency |
Cumulative Percent |
| CPX | 36285 | 12.59 | 36285 | 12.59 |
| DPS | 2252 | 0.78 | 38537 | 13.37 |
| EBS | 80 | 0.03 | 38617 | 13.40 |
| EBT | 10980 | 3.81 | 49597 | 17.21 |
| EPS | 105561 | 36.63 | 155158 | 53.84 |
| FFO | 5479 | 1.90 | 160637 | 55.74 |
| GPS | 9482 | 3.29 | 170119 | 59.03 |
| GRM | 13391 | 4.65 | 183510 | 63.68 |
| NET | 8852 | 3.07 | 192362 | 66.75 |
| OPR | 3935 | 1.37 | 196297 | 68.11 |
| PRE | 1196 | 0.41 | 197493 | 68.53 |
| ROA | 83 | 0.03 | 197576 | 68.56 |
| ROE | 544 | 0.19 | 198120 | 68.75 |
| SAL | 90073 | 31.25 | 288193 | 100.00 |
| SALPAR | 1 | 0.00 | 288194 | 100.00 |
Time Series Event Study of Management Forecasts (MF v1.0) - More Interesting
| Analysis Variable : car | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Range_desc | Guidance_code | MF_year | N Obs | N | Mean | t Value | Pr > |t| |
| between (&) | shortfall | 2002 | 141 | 134 | -0.0879203 | -6.70 | <.0001 |
| 2003 | 3286 | 3143 | -0.0531445 | -27.62 | <.0001 | ||
| 2004 | 4414 | 4209 | -0.0556624 | -33.75 | <.0001 | ||
| 2005 | 4775 | 4518 | -0.0508213 | -37.66 | <.0001 | ||
| 2006 | 4976 | 4735 | -0.0413169 | -29.81 | <.0001 | ||
| 2007 | 5385 | 5152 | -0.0409229 | -29.77 | <.0001 | ||
| 2008 | 7518 | 7167 | -0.0455477 | -26.42 | <.0001 | ||
| 2009 | 5625 | 5414 | -0.0290730 | -17.93 | <.0001 | ||
| 2010 | 4902 | 4681 | -0.0315479 | -22.57 | <.0001 | ||
| 2011 | 5733 | 5527 | -0.0336018 | -23.01 | <.0001 | ||
| 2012 | 6828 | 6572 | -0.0324841 | -24.66 | <.0001 | ||
| 2013 | 6727 | 6469 | -0.0256261 | -22.02 | <.0001 | ||
| 2014 | 1934 | 1859 | -0.0288105 | -12.11 | <.0001 | ||
| beat consensus | 2001 | 2 | 1 | -0.0017726 | . | . | |
| 2002 | 93 | 88 | 0.0399165 | 3.87 | 0.0002 | ||
| 2003 | 2434 | 2324 | 0.0460118 | 21.16 | <.0001 | ||
| 2004 | 3638 | 3468 | 0.0341562 | 23.11 | <.0001 | ||
| 2005 | 3343 | 3173 | 0.0353568 | 23.86 | <.0001 | ||
| 2006 | 3633 | 3447 | 0.0366106 | 26.36 | <.0001 | ||
| 2007 | 3651 | 3476 | 0.0370392 | 24.00 | <.0001 | ||
| 2008 | 4514 | 4241 | 0.0386112 | 21.38 | <.0001 | ||
| 2009 | 4324 | 4124 | 0.0464362 | 24.49 | <.0001 | ||
| 2010 | 5837 | 5524 | 0.0307590 | 27.02 | <.0001 | ||
| 2011 | 4850 | 4602 | 0.0313495 | 21.25 | <.0001 | ||
| 2012 | 4485 | 4258 | 0.0348499 | 23.39 | <.0001 | ||
| 2013 | 4243 | 4066 | 0.0287937 | 19.78 | <.0001 | ||
| 2014 | 1072 | 1030 | 0.0289059 | 9.45 | <.0001 | ||
| Match Consensus | 2002 | 193 | 183 | -0.0058938 | -0.81 | 0.4199 | |
| 2003 | 5898 | 5611 | 0.0057823 | 5.17 | <.0001 | ||
| 2004 | 7638 | 7266 | -0.000160427 | -0.19 | 0.8510 | ||
| 2005 | 7767 | 7356 | 0.0049093 | 6.24 | <.0001 | ||
| 2006 | 7780 | 7390 | 0.0043200 | 5.31 | <.0001 | ||
| 2007 | 8306 | 7860 | 0.0080441 | 9.42 | <.0001 | ||
| 2008 | 9538 | 9057 | 0.0095128 | 8.73 | <.0001 | ||
| 2009 | 7882 | 7491 | 0.0128382 | 11.27 | <.0001 | ||
| 2010 | 9534 | 9026 | 0.0027056 | 3.74 | 0.0002 | ||
| 2011 | 9301 | 8892 | 0.0051716 | 6.08 | <.0001 | ||
| 2012 | 9707 | 9271 | 0.0086958 | 10.58 | <.0001 | ||
| 2013 | 9965 | 9561 | 0.0086726 | 12.17 | <.0001 | ||
| 2014 | 2343 | 2257 | 0.0092936 | 5.82 | <.0001 | ||
| management guidance | 2001 | 1 | 1 | 0.1264150 | . | . | |
| 2002 | 76 | 70 | 0.0122779 | 1.07 | 0.2886 | ||
| 2003 | 1070 | 1018 | -0.0026937 | -0.64 | 0.5194 | ||
| 2004 | 796 | 684 | 0.0017574 | 0.29 | 0.7738 | ||
| 2005 | 639 | 482 | -0.0031710 | -0.49 | 0.6240 | ||
| 2006 | 519 | 383 | 0.0037485 | 0.60 | 0.5473 | ||
| 2007 | 503 | 381 | -0.0179156 | -2.88 | 0.0043 | ||
| 2008 | 1067 | 919 | 0.0010758 | 0.21 | 0.8335 | ||
| 2009 | 1205 | 1092 | 0.0199339 | 3.95 | <.0001 | ||
| 2010 | 1186 | 1046 | 0.0084357 | 2.23 | 0.0262 | ||
| 2011 | 969 | 866 | 0.0117511 | 2.72 | 0.0066 | ||
| 2012 | 1123 | 1015 | 0.0065651 | 1.82 | 0.0695 | ||
| 2013 | 928 | 845 | -0.0017280 | -0.50 | 0.6201 | ||
| 2014 | 193 | 184 | 0.0072252 | 0.62 | 0.5371 | ||
| About | shortfall | 2002 | 38 | 31 | -0.0703282 | -3.54 | 0.0013 |
| 2003 | 466 | 435 | -0.0606701 | -11.78 | <.0001 | ||
| 2004 | 594 | 560 | -0.0668099 | -13.86 | <.0001 | ||
| 2005 | 511 | 488 | -0.0690805 | -13.11 | <.0001 | ||
| 2006 | 556 | 531 | -0.0448856 | -9.13 | <.0001 | ||
| 2007 | 779 | 718 | -0.0307126 | -8.92 | <.0001 | ||
| 2008 | 1559 | 1443 | -0.0394905 | -8.77 | <.0001 | ||
| 2009 | 1700 | 1592 | -0.0168855 | -4.85 | <.0001 | ||
| 2010 | 1082 | 1023 | -0.0175754 | -6.19 | <.0001 | ||
| 2011 | 1128 | 1055 | -0.0319820 | -8.85 | <.0001 | ||
| 2012 | 1334 | 1255 | -0.0165181 | -4.97 | <.0001 | ||
| 2013 | 1345 | 1280 | -0.0180985 | -7.39 | <.0001 | ||
| 2014 | 311 | 298 | -0.0062353 | -1.12 | 0.2631 | ||
| beat consensus | 2002 | 14 | 13 | 0.0150043 | 0.81 | 0.4339 | |
| 2003 | 298 | 283 | 0.0408307 | 6.61 | <.0001 | ||
| 2004 | 539 | 504 | 0.0362392 | 8.22 | <.0001 | ||
| 2005 | 343 | 311 | 0.0544498 | 8.63 | <.0001 | ||
| 2006 | 325 | 306 | 0.0406301 | 7.50 | <.0001 | ||
| 2007 | 670 | 600 | 0.0194624 | 5.09 | <.0001 | ||
| 2008 | 1383 | 1272 | 0.0196394 | 5.66 | <.0001 | ||
| 2009 | 1174 | 1103 | 0.0299431 | 8.09 | <.0001 | ||
| 2010 | 1674 | 1568 | 0.0064988 | 3.25 | 0.0012 | ||
| 2011 | 1554 | 1476 | 0.0107790 | 4.82 | <.0001 | ||
| 2012 | 1695 | 1595 | 0.0096230 | 4.59 | <.0001 | ||
| 2013 | 1738 | 1620 | 0.0069875 | 3.63 | 0.0003 | ||
| 2014 | 468 | 444 | 0.0139052 | 4.09 | <.0001 | ||
| Match Consensus | 2002 | 65 | 65 | -0.0101003 | -1.27 | 0.2091 | |
| 2003 | 1674 | 1611 | -0.0039667 | -1.82 | 0.0689 | ||
| 2004 | 2052 | 1934 | 0.000114271 | 0.06 | 0.9535 | ||
| 2005 | 1851 | 1736 | -0.0015865 | -0.83 | 0.4081 | ||
| 2006 | 1746 | 1636 | 0.0024591 | 1.18 | 0.2376 | ||
| 2007 | 2444 | 2333 | -0.0021895 | -1.27 | 0.2046 | ||
| 2008 | 3565 | 3413 | 0.0061189 | 3.08 | 0.0021 | ||
| 2009 | 2828 | 2713 | 0.0132736 | 6.26 | <.0001 | ||
| 2010 | 3273 | 3129 | 0.0024471 | 1.87 | 0.0609 | ||
| 2011 | 3312 | 3182 | -0.000195038 | -0.12 | 0.9031 | ||
| 2012 | 3817 | 3639 | 0.0010401 | 0.72 | 0.4710 | ||
| 2013 | 4459 | 4214 | 0.0020056 | 1.90 | 0.0569 | ||
| 2014 | 1048 | 999 | 0.0085496 | 3.74 | 0.0002 | ||
| management guidance | 2002 | 20 | 17 | 0.0290775 | 1.31 | 0.2091 | |
| 2003 | 271 | 249 | 0.0190555 | 1.82 | 0.0699 | ||
| 2004 | 303 | 212 | -0.0044855 | -0.58 | 0.5595 | ||
| 2005 | 216 | 126 | -0.0011805 | -0.10 | 0.9218 | ||
| 2006 | 360 | 202 | -0.0051174 | -0.50 | 0.6169 | ||
| 2007 | 358 | 211 | -0.0022476 | -0.28 | 0.7807 | ||
| 2008 | 759 | 664 | 0.0222988 | 2.98 | 0.0030 | ||
| 2009 | 931 | 831 | 0.0130307 | 2.16 | 0.0309 | ||
| 2010 | 817 | 698 | -0.0018499 | -0.48 | 0.6299 | ||
| 2011 | 623 | 548 | 0.0037315 | 0.65 | 0.5191 | ||
| 2012 | 631 | 550 | 0.000209576 | 0.04 | 0.9645 | ||
| 2013 | 512 | 476 | -0.0033698 | -0.81 | 0.4192 | ||
| 2014 | 92 | 83 | -0.0050524 | -0.63 | 0.5275 | ||
| more than | beat consensus | 2002 | 4 | 4 | 0.0368926 | 1.09 | 0.3560 |
| 2003 | 72 | 67 | 0.0538153 | 5.25 | <.0001 | ||
| 2004 | 159 | 142 | 0.0262697 | 3.87 | 0.0002 | ||
| 2005 | 95 | 87 | 0.0416025 | 4.54 | <.0001 | ||
| 2006 | 133 | 119 | 0.0463969 | 5.68 | <.0001 | ||
| 2007 | 150 | 141 | 0.0437622 | 4.73 | <.0001 | ||
| 2008 | 229 | 220 | 0.0235027 | 3.17 | 0.0017 | ||
| 2009 | 152 | 140 | 0.0253444 | 1.84 | 0.0674 | ||
| 2010 | 231 | 209 | 0.0323540 | 5.29 | <.0001 | ||
| 2011 | 180 | 155 | 0.0283745 | 3.94 | 0.0001 | ||
| 2012 | 143 | 130 | 0.0263124 | 3.33 | 0.0011 | ||
| 2013 | 98 | 94 | 0.0161008 | 1.68 | 0.0959 | ||
| 2014 | 24 | 24 | 0.0426152 | 2.43 | 0.0233 | ||
| management guidance | 2002 | 4 | 4 | -0.1266227 | -3.42 | 0.0417 | |
| 2003 | 215 | 207 | 0.0189317 | 2.39 | 0.0177 | ||
| 2004 | 397 | 346 | -0.000699431 | -0.10 | 0.9195 | ||
| 2005 | 278 | 216 | 0.0122012 | 1.96 | 0.0510 | ||
| 2006 | 390 | 311 | -0.0034214 | -0.65 | 0.5149 | ||
| 2007 | 298 | 250 | 0.000548926 | 0.10 | 0.9206 | ||
| 2008 | 409 | 393 | -0.0012864 | -0.22 | 0.8248 | ||
| 2009 | 235 | 224 | -0.0074171 | -1.12 | 0.2619 | ||
| 2010 | 314 | 291 | -0.0016423 | -0.34 | 0.7344 | ||
| 2011 | 368 | 335 | 0.0070168 | 1.07 | 0.2875 | ||
| 2012 | 276 | 238 | -0.0021505 | -0.41 | 0.6838 | ||
| 2013 | 164 | 150 | 0.0015027 | 0.30 | 0.7684 | ||
| 2014 | 38 | 35 | 0.0064594 | 0.52 | 0.6033 | ||
| at least | beat consensus | 2002 | 9 | 9 | 0.0358720 | 0.62 | 0.5517 |
| 2003 | 142 | 138 | 0.0325256 | 4.00 | 0.0001 | ||
| 2004 | 113 | 110 | 0.0168656 | 2.39 | 0.0186 | ||
| 2005 | 89 | 86 | 0.0559389 | 3.96 | 0.0002 | ||
| 2006 | 79 | 78 | 0.0515213 | 4.61 | <.0001 | ||
| 2007 | 41 | 41 | 0.0220988 | 2.30 | 0.0265 | ||
| 2008 | 59 | 59 | 0.0499156 | 4.29 | <.0001 | ||
| 2009 | 55 | 55 | 0.0529231 | 3.54 | 0.0008 | ||
| 2010 | 52 | 51 | 0.0412977 | 3.22 | 0.0022 | ||
| 2011 | 78 | 74 | 0.0343938 | 2.63 | 0.0104 | ||
| 2012 | 62 | 61 | 0.0198908 | 1.68 | 0.0988 | ||
| 2013 | 51 | 51 | 0.0521835 | 2.78 | 0.0076 | ||
| 2014 | 12 | 12 | 0.0561288 | 1.76 | 0.1064 | ||
| management guidance | 2002 | 15 | 15 | -0.0868953 | -2.08 | 0.0565 | |
| 2003 | 199 | 181 | -0.0085700 | -1.03 | 0.3031 | ||
| 2004 | 150 | 144 | -0.0055840 | -0.89 | 0.3739 | ||
| 2005 | 145 | 129 | -0.000081027 | -0.01 | 0.9883 | ||
| 2006 | 131 | 121 | -0.0330993 | -3.38 | 0.0010 | ||
| 2007 | 132 | 115 | -0.0068348 | -0.88 | 0.3797 | ||
| 2008 | 141 | 130 | -0.0127228 | -1.15 | 0.2503 | ||
| 2009 | 73 | 73 | -0.0144499 | -1.14 | 0.2583 | ||
| 2010 | 108 | 107 | -0.0133360 | -1.45 | 0.1503 | ||
| 2011 | 114 | 110 | -0.0076184 | -1.08 | 0.2814 | ||
| 2012 | 101 | 96 | -0.0133860 | -1.31 | 0.1919 | ||
| 2013 | 111 | 108 | -0.0021024 | -0.38 | 0.7049 | ||
| 2014 | 35 | 30 | 0.0513029 | 2.41 | 0.0225 | ||
| high end of | shortfall | 2003 | 13 | 12 | 0.0100412 | 0.84 | 0.4171 |
| 2004 | 14 | 14 | 0.0081646 | 0.37 | 0.7178 | ||
| 2005 | 20 | 20 | 0.0119601 | 1.19 | 0.2503 | ||
| 2006 | 34 | 34 | 0.0106398 | 0.98 | 0.3354 | ||
| 2007 | 22 | 20 | 0.0027239 | 0.18 | 0.8581 | ||
| 2008 | 2 | 2 | 0.0587175 | 1.49 | 0.3767 | ||
| 2009 | 9 | 9 | -0.0046523 | -0.19 | 0.8528 | ||
| 2010 | 48 | 45 | 0.000150400 | 0.02 | 0.9825 | ||
| 2011 | 32 | 32 | 0.0032157 | 0.32 | 0.7481 | ||
| beat consensus | 2002 | 2 | 1 | 0.0068577 | . | . | |
| 2003 | 6 | 6 | 0.0291891 | 2.08 | 0.0924 | ||
| 2004 | 8 | 8 | -0.0148976 | -0.47 | 0.6519 | ||
| 2005 | 7 | 7 | 0.0271829 | 1.01 | 0.3500 | ||
| 2006 | 6 | 6 | 0.0342082 | 2.12 | 0.0878 | ||
| 2007 | 6 | 5 | -0.0218258 | -1.22 | 0.2907 | ||
| 2009 | 3 | 2 | 0.0304697 | 0.71 | 0.6057 | ||
| 2010 | 9 | 7 | 0.0241303 | 0.91 | 0.3996 | ||
| 2011 | 6 | 6 | -0.0049838 | -0.30 | 0.7766 | ||
| Match Consensus | 2002 | 3 | 3 | 0.1060975 | 2.89 | 0.1015 | |
| 2003 | 75 | 73 | 0.0248164 | 3.03 | 0.0034 | ||
| 2004 | 106 | 103 | 0.0139907 | 1.79 | 0.0765 | ||
| 2005 | 85 | 81 | 0.0303685 | 3.78 | 0.0003 | ||
| 2006 | 111 | 104 | 0.0166235 | 2.19 | 0.0308 | ||
| 2007 | 88 | 87 | 0.0301313 | 3.93 | 0.0002 | ||
| 2008 | 9 | 9 | 0.0824971 | 2.37 | 0.0454 | ||
| 2009 | 38 | 37 | -0.0094550 | -0.93 | 0.3586 | ||
| 2010 | 124 | 117 | -0.000578011 | -0.10 | 0.9191 | ||
| 2011 | 101 | 100 | 0.0143044 | 2.55 | 0.0122 | ||
| management guidance | 2003 | 4 | 4 | 0.0521226 | 3.08 | 0.0540 | |
| 2004 | 3 | 3 | 0.1058329 | 3.25 | 0.0831 | ||
| 2005 | 2 | 1 | -0.0476492 | . | . | ||
| 2006 | 4 | 3 | 0.0111695 | 0.24 | 0.8294 | ||
| 2007 | 3 | 3 | 0.0873855 | 0.84 | 0.4902 | ||
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | 0.0063479 | . | . | ||
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | 0.0445301 | . | . | ||
| 2011 | 3 | 2 | 0.0083777 | 0.30 | 0.8153 | ||
| low end of | shortfall | 2003 | 7 | 7 | -0.0897668 | -2.33 | 0.0583 |
| 2004 | 6 | 6 | -0.1109615 | -2.56 | 0.0510 | ||
| 2005 | 9 | 7 | -0.0476084 | -3.55 | 0.0121 | ||
| 2006 | 7 | 7 | -0.0314106 | -1.21 | 0.2724 | ||
| 2007 | 5 | 5 | -0.0287181 | -1.92 | 0.1266 | ||
| 2010 | 9 | 8 | -0.0162018 | -1.28 | 0.2419 | ||
| 2011 | 9 | 9 | -0.0422691 | -1.59 | 0.1497 | ||
| beat consensus | 2003 | 19 | 17 | -0.0080930 | -0.76 | 0.4558 | |
| 2004 | 8 | 8 | -0.0354652 | -1.97 | 0.0891 | ||
| 2005 | 14 | 13 | -0.0625569 | -1.81 | 0.0955 | ||
| 2006 | 23 | 21 | -0.0221593 | -1.53 | 0.1423 | ||
| 2007 | 16 | 14 | -0.0108764 | -0.47 | 0.6469 | ||
| 2009 | 8 | 7 | -0.0017317 | -0.09 | 0.9276 | ||
| 2010 | 14 | 13 | -0.0257187 | -0.85 | 0.4095 | ||
| 2011 | 15 | 13 | -0.0126097 | -0.76 | 0.4623 | ||
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | 0.0588459 | . | . | ||
| Match Consensus | 2002 | 5 | 5 | -0.1003224 | -1.52 | 0.2024 | |
| 2003 | 90 | 89 | -0.0164248 | -2.62 | 0.0104 | ||
| 2004 | 76 | 75 | -0.0220669 | -2.52 | 0.0138 | ||
| 2005 | 86 | 83 | -0.0384681 | -6.32 | <.0001 | ||
| 2006 | 76 | 75 | -0.0322083 | -3.99 | 0.0002 | ||
| 2007 | 78 | 73 | -0.0268515 | -4.29 | <.0001 | ||
| 2008 | 6 | 6 | 0.0364370 | 0.78 | 0.4725 | ||
| 2009 | 22 | 20 | 0.000622043 | 0.05 | 0.9589 | ||
| 2010 | 79 | 73 | -0.0201271 | -2.05 | 0.0441 | ||
| 2011 | 67 | 64 | -0.0250826 | -2.28 | 0.0262 | ||
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | -0.0504291 | . | . | ||
| management guidance | 2002 | 3 | 2 | -0.0659798 | -0.91 | 0.5314 | |
| 2003 | 1 | 1 | -0.0210314 | . | . | ||
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | -0.0277601 | . | . | ||
| 2005 | 1 | 1 | -0.0476492 | . | . | ||
| 2006 | 3 | 1 | -0.0619647 | . | . | ||
| 2009 | 7 | 7 | 0.0388989 | 1.79 | 0.1240 | ||
| 2010 | 4 | 4 | -0.0269680 | -1.05 | 0.3727 | ||
| 2011 | 5 | 5 | 0.0143403 | 1.41 | 0.2303 | ||
| less than | shortfall | 2002 | 2 | 2 | -0.2492690 | -2.04 | 0.2896 |
| 2003 | 44 | 43 | -0.0765933 | -3.57 | 0.0009 | ||
| 2004 | 53 | 50 | -0.1125855 | -5.76 | <.0001 | ||
| 2005 | 24 | 21 | -0.0554584 | -2.69 | 0.0140 | ||
| 2006 | 51 | 51 | -0.1068403 | -6.15 | <.0001 | ||
| 2007 | 43 | 40 | -0.0331670 | -1.60 | 0.1182 | ||
| 2008 | 63 | 62 | -0.0171928 | -0.83 | 0.4076 | ||
| 2009 | 120 | 117 | -0.0013854 | -0.12 | 0.9022 | ||
| 2010 | 42 | 42 | 0.0063224 | 0.45 | 0.6551 | ||
| 2011 | 35 | 34 | -0.0407430 | -2.16 | 0.0379 | ||
| 2012 | 46 | 44 | 0.0138384 | 0.52 | 0.6063 | ||
| 2013 | 18 | 17 | -0.0248218 | -1.26 | 0.2251 | ||
| 2014 | 3 | 3 | 0.0969718 | 1.16 | 0.3651 | ||
| management guidance | 2002 | 3 | 3 | -0.0765650 | -1.09 | 0.3896 | |
| 2003 | 107 | 97 | -0.0766446 | -3.99 | 0.0001 | ||
| 2004 | 131 | 108 | -0.0425629 | -3.38 | 0.0010 | ||
| 2005 | 40 | 35 | -0.0606610 | -4.68 | <.0001 | ||
| 2006 | 65 | 57 | 0.0145231 | 0.56 | 0.5782 | ||
| 2007 | 63 | 59 | -0.0219022 | -1.69 | 0.0970 | ||
| 2008 | 109 | 102 | -0.0145118 | -1.02 | 0.3110 | ||
| 2009 | 198 | 182 | 0.0124204 | 1.34 | 0.1805 | ||
| 2010 | 91 | 87 | -0.0026636 | -0.28 | 0.7781 | ||
| 2011 | 57 | 53 | -0.0248631 | -1.83 | 0.0724 | ||
| 2012 | 44 | 41 | -0.0102761 | -0.60 | 0.5540 | ||
| 2013 | 23 | 22 | 0.0094842 | 0.44 | 0.6610 | ||
| 2014 | 10 | 9 | -0.0163642 | -0.81 | 0.4417 | ||
| may exceed | management guidance | 2003 | 15 | 14 | 0.0630778 | 1.86 | 0.0864 |
| 2004 | 27 | 27 | -0.000799239 | -0.04 | 0.9681 | ||
| 2005 | 20 | 19 | 0.0434456 | 1.60 | 0.1273 | ||
| 2006 | 29 | 27 | 0.0357082 | 1.86 | 0.0739 | ||
| 2007 | 19 | 17 | -0.0280927 | -1.04 | 0.3143 | ||
| 2008 | 1 | 1 | 0.0649613 | . | . | ||
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | 0.1396662 | . | . | ||
| 2012 | 2 | 2 | 0.0937953 | . | . | ||
| slightly more than | beat consensus | 2003 | 6 | 6 | 0.0539462 | 1.63 | 0.1648 |
| 2004 | 8 | 8 | 0.0275509 | 0.50 | 0.6315 | ||
| 2005 | 6 | 6 | 0.0410034 | 1.09 | 0.3258 | ||
| 2006 | 24 | 23 | 0.0079798 | 0.43 | 0.6738 | ||
| 2007 | 22 | 21 | 0.0421457 | 1.94 | 0.0668 | ||
| 2008 | 21 | 20 | 0.0238637 | 0.88 | 0.3917 | ||
| 2009 | 28 | 28 | -0.0135228 | -0.48 | 0.6349 | ||
| 2010 | 13 | 13 | 0.0149574 | 0.69 | 0.5051 | ||
| 2011 | 17 | 17 | 0.0170830 | 0.90 | 0.3802 | ||
| 2012 | 11 | 10 | 0.0415956 | 1.60 | 0.1445 | ||
| 2013 | 16 | 15 | -0.0312621 | -1.51 | 0.1540 | ||
| 2014 | 2 | 2 | 0.0078805 | . | . | ||
| management guidance | 2002 | 1 | 1 | -0.0192872 | . | . | |
| 2003 | 19 | 18 | -0.0128414 | -0.72 | 0.4801 | ||
| 2004 | 35 | 34 | -0.0176605 | -1.41 | 0.1686 | ||
| 2005 | 22 | 21 | -0.0110827 | -0.52 | 0.6061 | ||
| 2006 | 48 | 45 | -0.0037229 | -0.25 | 0.8060 | ||
| 2007 | 37 | 32 | -0.0192581 | -1.37 | 0.1801 | ||
| 2008 | 31 | 29 | -0.0295155 | -1.05 | 0.3034 | ||
| 2009 | 25 | 24 | 0.0352387 | 1.29 | 0.2110 | ||
| 2010 | 19 | 18 | -0.0060039 | -0.28 | 0.7809 | ||
| 2011 | 26 | 25 | -0.0110868 | -1.15 | 0.2622 | ||
| 2012 | 30 | 30 | -0.0024941 | -0.21 | 0.8313 | ||
| 2013 | 20 | 20 | -0.000417743 | -0.02 | 0.9820 | ||
| 2014 | 8 | 8 | 0.0182488 | 1.00 | 0.3502 | ||
| slightly less than | shortfall | 2003 | 10 | 9 | -0.0306437 | -2.49 | 0.0374 |
| 2004 | 11 | 9 | -0.0760783 | -2.76 | 0.0246 | ||
| 2005 | 14 | 14 | -0.0328376 | -2.53 | 0.0254 | ||
| 2006 | 16 | 16 | -0.0536728 | -2.59 | 0.0206 | ||
| 2007 | 17 | 17 | 0.0068911 | 0.31 | 0.7598 | ||
| 2008 | 15 | 14 | -0.0451151 | -1.61 | 0.1308 | ||
| 2009 | 18 | 18 | -0.0358690 | -1.57 | 0.1356 | ||
| 2010 | 11 | 9 | -0.0033951 | -0.18 | 0.8634 | ||
| 2011 | 11 | 11 | -0.0489571 | -1.95 | 0.0794 | ||
| 2012 | 7 | 7 | -0.0046360 | -0.30 | 0.7765 | ||
| 2013 | 6 | 6 | 0.0089643 | 0.42 | 0.6949 | ||
| 2014 | 3 | 3 | 0.0538494 | 1.53 | 0.2657 | ||
| management guidance | 2003 | 8 | 8 | 0.0106428 | 0.42 | 0.6841 | |
| 2004 | 17 | 17 | 0.0062139 | 0.47 | 0.6426 | ||
| 2005 | 8 | 8 | 0.0037419 | 0.14 | 0.8948 | ||
| 2006 | 26 | 23 | -0.0091800 | -0.54 | 0.5973 | ||
| 2007 | 15 | 15 | 0.0177895 | 0.90 | 0.3813 | ||
| 2008 | 20 | 18 | 0.0754633 | 2.68 | 0.0160 | ||
| 2009 | 15 | 15 | -0.0081297 | -0.79 | 0.4423 | ||
| 2010 | 9 | 9 | -0.0057008 | -0.63 | 0.5487 | ||
| 2011 | 10 | 10 | 0.0121850 | 0.41 | 0.6882 | ||
| 2012 | 15 | 15 | -0.0169043 | -0.28 | 0.7871 | ||
| 2013 | 9 | 8 | 0.0281801 | 1.13 | 0.2957 | ||
| 2014 | 3 | 3 | -0.0407768 | -1.93 | 0.1929 | ||
| comfortable with | shortfall | 2003 | 1 | 1 | 0.2060227 | . | . |
| 2004 | 2 | 2 | -0.0688440 | -0.89 | 0.5354 | ||
| 2005 | 2 | 2 | 0.0950537 | 8.48 | 0.0747 | ||
| 2006 | 5 | 5 | 0.0057759 | 0.67 | 0.5418 | ||
| 2007 | 2 | 2 | 0.0347266 | 1.11 | 0.4663 | ||
| 2008 | 3 | 3 | 0.0195916 | 0.52 | 0.6565 | ||
| beat consensus | 2003 | 7 | 7 | -0.0017051 | -0.16 | 0.8806 | |
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | -0.0425753 | . | . | ||
| 2005 | 1 | 1 | 0.0180696 | . | . | ||
| 2007 | 2 | 1 | 0.5329565 | . | . | ||
| 2009 | 2 | 2 | 0.0163971 | 1.33 | 0.4112 | ||
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | -0.0342055 | . | . | ||
| Match Consensus | 2002 | 15 | 15 | 0.0074009 | 0.70 | 0.4983 | |
| 2003 | 227 | 217 | -0.0025939 | -0.69 | 0.4940 | ||
| 2004 | 105 | 104 | 0.0079784 | 1.49 | 0.1399 | ||
| 2005 | 82 | 82 | 0.0021527 | 0.36 | 0.7166 | ||
| 2006 | 46 | 46 | 0.0105507 | 1.14 | 0.2622 | ||
| 2007 | 39 | 37 | 0.0096697 | 0.95 | 0.3461 | ||
| 2008 | 26 | 26 | 0.0020553 | 0.13 | 0.9006 | ||
| 2009 | 7 | 7 | 0.0503623 | 1.47 | 0.1922 | ||
| 2010 | 4 | 4 | -0.0205029 | -2.33 | 0.1019 | ||
| 2011 | 1 | 1 | -0.0076378 | . | . | ||
| 2013 | 3 | 3 | -0.0295361 | -0.98 | 0.4309 | ||
| management guidance | 2002 | 1 | 1 | -0.0498957 | . | . | |
| 2003 | 3 | 3 | -0.0158470 | -1.18 | 0.3597 | ||
| 2005 | 1 | 0 | . | . | . | ||
| 2006 | 6 | 0 | . | . | . | ||
| 2007 | 14 | 8 | -0.0700252 | -1.64 | 0.1448 | ||
| 2009 | 2 | 2 | 0.0608127 | 2.89 | 0.2122 | ||
| significantly less than | shortfall | 2003 | 1 | 1 | -0.0768066 | . | . |
| 2004 | 2 | 2 | 0.0055141 | 16.12 | 0.0394 | ||
| 2005 | 15 | 9 | -0.0601718 | -3.51 | 0.0079 | ||
| 2006 | 8 | 6 | -0.0788691 | -0.95 | 0.3846 | ||
| 2007 | 3 | 2 | -0.2449272 | -1.35 | 0.4065 | ||
| 2008 | 2 | 2 | -0.1942644 | . | . | ||
| 2011 | 1 | 1 | -0.2840062 | . | . | ||
| management guidance | 2002 | 1 | 1 | -0.1032307 | . | . | |
| 2003 | 8 | 8 | -0.0731269 | -3.48 | 0.0103 | ||
| 2004 | 5 | 5 | -0.1651474 | -3.49 | 0.0251 | ||
| 2005 | 19 | 17 | -0.0909307 | -2.08 | 0.0535 | ||
| 2006 | 7 | 7 | -0.0200116 | -0.43 | 0.6841 | ||
| 2008 | 7 | 5 | 0.0080312 | 0.17 | 0.8698 | ||
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | -0.0670754 | . | . | ||
| 2011 | 1 | 1 | 0.0755915 | . | . | ||
| 2012 | 2 | 2 | -0.0669766 | -2.44 | 0.2480 | ||
| significantly more than | beat consensus | 2003 | 2 | 1 | 0.0609062 | . | . |
| 2004 | 3 | 3 | 0.0810591 | 2.35 | 0.1437 | ||
| 2005 | 1 | 1 | 0.0638046 | . | . | ||
| 2006 | 3 | 3 | 0.0566360 | 1.92 | 0.1951 | ||
| 2007 | 1 | 1 | 0.0670833 | . | . | ||
| 2008 | 1 | 1 | -0.0176611 | . | . | ||
| management guidance | 2002 | 1 | 1 | 0.0202071 | . | . | |
| 2003 | 9 | 9 | 0.0468077 | 0.86 | 0.4129 | ||
| 2004 | 9 | 9 | -0.0225441 | -0.83 | 0.4318 | ||
| 2005 | 10 | 8 | 0.0105702 | 0.28 | 0.7906 | ||
| 2006 | 17 | 12 | 0.0286718 | 1.38 | 0.1942 | ||
| 2007 | 2 | 2 | 0.0503826 | 1.21 | 0.4397 | ||
| 2008 | 1 | 1 | -0.0317099 | . | . | ||
| 2009 | 2 | 2 | 0.2869853 | 2.57 | 0.2365 | ||
| 2011 | 1 | 1 | -0.2840062 | . | . | ||
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | -0.0866493 | . | . | ||
| not to exceed | shortfall | 2008 | 9 | 9 | 0.0671104 | 1.18 | 0.2736 |
| 2009 | 14 | 14 | -0.0171058 | -0.58 | 0.5736 | ||
| 2010 | 3 | 3 | -0.0103960 | -0.42 | 0.7129 | ||
| 2012 | 2 | 1 | -0.0937879 | . | . | ||
| management guidance | 2007 | 1 | 1 | 0.1570761 | . | . | |
| 2008 | 4 | 4 | -0.0113196 | -0.28 | 0.7983 | ||
| 2009 | 40 | 38 | 0.0065399 | 0.23 | 0.8202 | ||
| 2010 | 13 | 13 | -0.0146883 | -0.74 | 0.4754 | ||
| 2011 | 9 | 9 | -0.0396882 | -0.96 | 0.3670 | ||
| 2012 | 6 | 6 | 0.0269567 | 0.49 | 0.6436 | ||
| 2013 | 6 | 6 | 0.0235950 | 0.82 | 0.4495 | ||
| 2014 | 1 | 1 | -0.0179100 | . | . | ||
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